If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
Lacklustre domestic equities alongside ongoing FCNR redemptions added pressure on the local currency
Vikram Kothari's Rotomac stares at a loan default of Rs 369 crore
The RBI's macroeconomic report released after the close of markets said upside risks to food inflation remain and that it expects the retail and wholesale price inflation to remain above comfort levels.
The rupee had plummeted to over three-month low of 63.32.
Forex dealers said bouts of heavy dollar demand from banks and oil importers amid lower equities attributed the rupee sentiment.
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
After a day's respite, the rupee on Wednesday fell by 29 paise, its biggest single day fall in a week, to end at 56.73 today due to heavy dollar demand from importers amid renewed concerns over withdrawal of US monetary stimulus.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
The Indian rupee continued its downward march and fell by another 48 paise to 46.53 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday owing to melting Asian stock markets amid heavy demand for the greenback.
Breaking all previous records, gold prices on Saturday surged to a new peak at Rs 16,349 per 10 gram in futures trade, as traders increased their exposure in the precious metal following melting stock and forex.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has liberalised the procedure for facilitating the import of rough diamonds (termed roughs in the trade).
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
China's forex reserves witnessed an increase of $509.7, a 12.8 per cent rise from 2012, People's Bank of China said.
The rupee extended its losses and slumped 10 paise to close at a record low of 77.72 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, weighed down by a negative trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.72 against the greenback, and finally settled for the day at 77.72, down 10 paise over its previous close. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intra-day low of 77.76 and a high of 77.63.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
Shares of most of the Adani group firms ended lower on Monday, with the group companies' combined mcap witnessing a sharp fall of Rs 9.5 lakh crore after US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research's adverse report.
The rupee had rebounded 15 paise to close at two-week high of 61.77 against the dollar at the Interbank Foreign Exchange on Friday.
The rupee weakened by 14 paise to close at a new lifetime low of 79.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday as a strong greenback overseas and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This comes a day after the RBI announced measures for international trade settlement in rupees. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.55 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.53 and a low of 79.66.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
Foreign banks had 317 branches in 2015-16; it has reduced to 286. In the same period, employee strength came down from 26,642 to 24,766.
While the fiscal year has just begun, any windfall surplus will be welcomed by the government as it bids to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of GDP, amidst lack of clarity on exactly to what extent will recession in the West impact India's trade and tax collections.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
The probe is being conducted under various sections of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) after the central probe agency recently received a communication from the commerce ministry seeking "necessary action" against e-commerce players like Amazon and Flipkart pertaining to certain multi-brand retail businesses and an observation made by the Delhi High Court in relation to Amazon.
'She delivers on promises, especially on security issues which is a core concern for India.'
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely to have any major impact on the Indian rupee and the forex volatility in the country (USD/INR) has been much less now as compared to the global financial crisis which took place in 2008, SBI said in its Ecowrap research report. The report said that though the conflict between the two CIS nations may drag on for now, it is expected that the USD/INR, the most tracked pair in the local forex market, will trade at an elevated zone. But ideally, the expected average range of the rupee is expected to be in the band Between Rs 76 to Rs 78 to the USD with an appreciated bias.
Sustained foreign capital inflows coupled with recovery in the equity market mainly boosted the rupee value against the dollar, a forex dealer said.
The rupee tumbled 19 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 77.93 against the US dollar on Friday as rising crude oil prices and unabated foreign capital outflows soured sentiment. A sell-off in equity markets and stronger greenback overseas also weighed on the domestic unit, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 77.81 and witnessed an intra-day high of 77.79 and a low of 77.93 against the US dollar.
The rupee extended its losses and slumped 60 paise to close at a record low of 77.50 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by the strength of the American currency overseas and unabated foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said risk appetite has weakened amid mounting concerns about inflation that may trigger more aggressive rate hikes by global central banks. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.17 against the greenback, and finally settled for the day at 77.50, down 60 paise over its previous close.
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
Axis Bank was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by SBI, ICICI Bank, ONGC, HDFC and Kotak Bank.
Traders who pay in rupees generate over Rs 50 crore in daily cryptocurrency volumes. Indians actually invest a great deal more in forex-denominated trades, observes Devangshu Dutta, explaining why it is impossible to ban cryptocurrency.
'For the common man, the economic conditions are not going to get better.'
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Currently, trades on the Indian stock exchanges are settled within two days, just like most major markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Indian exchanges, however, will be moving to T+1 settlement from February 25 in a phased manner.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
The currency got support from dollar flows into local equities and greenback sales from state-run lenders.
Forex dealers said besides strong demand for the American currency from importers, capital outflows mainly weighed on the domestic currency.
